Currency Substitution and Monetary Policy Effects: The Case of Latin American Countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, we empirically investigate how currency substitution transmits foreign monetary policy shocks to domestic countries and evaluate how the central bank respond to real exchange rate movements in three inflation-targeting Latin American countries under currency substitution, namely Chile, Mexico and Peru, between 2000 and 2011. Our model is based on a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates currency substitution and incomplete financial markets, and we estimate it by using Bayesian estimation techniques. Our empirical results are as follows. First, the degree of currency substitution is higher in Mexico, while it is negligible in Chile and Peru, which reflects the slight differences in the parameter values capturing the preference for the domestic currency among these countries. Second, the estimated coefficients of the real exchange rate gap in the monetary policy rule are high, meaning that the central banks in these countries actively respond to real exchange rate movements to diminish real exchange rate volatility. Third, domestic monetary policy influences the domestic economy through the real interest rate channel. On the contrary, foreign monetary policy has a significant effect in Mexico, while it is insignificant in Chile and Peru. This finding suggests the potential instability of currency substitution in that slight changes in the parameter values capturing the preference for the domestic currency alter the degree of insulation from foreign monetary policy shocks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".