Mining Social Media Content for Crime Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Social media provides increasing opportunities for users to voluntarily share their thoughts and concerns in a large volume of data. While user-generated data from each individual may not provide considerable information, when combined, they include hidden variables, which may convey significant events. In this paper, we pursue the question of whether social media context can provide socio-behavior "signals" for crime prediction. The hypothesis is that crowd publicly available data in social media, in particular Twitter, may include predictive variables, which can indicate the changes in crime rates. We developed a model for crime trend prediction where the objective is to employ Twitter content to identify whether crime rates have dropped or increased for the prospective time frame. We also present a Twitter sampling model to collect historical data to avoid missing data over time. The prediction model was evaluated for different cities in the United States. The experiments revealed the correlation between features extracted from the content and crime rate directions. Overall, the study provides insight into the correlation of social content and crime trends as well as the impact of social data in providing predictive indicators.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.008 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".