Structure of optimal strategies for remote estimation over Gilbert-Elliott channel with feedback
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We investigate remote estimation over a Gilbert-Elliot channel with feedback. The channel is modelled as an ON/OFF channel, where the state of the channel evolves as a Markov chain. The channel state is observed by the receiver and fed back to the transmitter with one unit delay. In addition, the transmitter gets ACK/NACK feedback for successful/unsuccessful transmission. Using ideas from team theory, we establish the structure of optimal transmission and estimation strategies and identify a dynamic program to determine optimal strategies with that structure. We then consider first-order autoregressive sources where the noise process has unimodal and symmetric distribution. Using ideas from majorization theory, we show that the optimal transmission strategy has a threshold structure and the optimal estimation strategy is Kalman-filter like.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it