Cannabis use and risk of schizophrenia: a Mendelian randomization study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cannabis use is observationally associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia, but whether the relationship is causal is not known. Using a genetic approach, we took 10 independent genetic variants previously identified to associate with cannabis use in 32 330 individuals to determine the nature of the association between cannabis use and risk of schizophrenia. Genetic variants were employed as instruments to recapitulate a randomized controlled trial involving two groups (cannabis users vs nonusers) to estimate the causal effect of cannabis use on risk of schizophrenia in 34 241 cases and 45 604 controls from predominantly European descent. Genetically-derived estimates were compared with a meta-analysis of observational studies reporting ever use of cannabis and risk of schizophrenia or related disorders. Based on the genetic approach, use of cannabis was associated with increased risk of schizophrenia (odds ratio (OR) of schizophrenia for users vs nonusers of cannabis: 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-1.67; P-value=0.007). The corresponding estimate from observational analysis was 1.43 (95% CI, 1.19-1.67; P-value for heterogeneity =0.76). The genetic markers did not show evidence of pleiotropic effects and accounting for tobacco exposure did not alter the association (OR of schizophrenia for users vs nonusers of cannabis, adjusted for ever vs never smoker: 1.41; 95% CI, 1.09-1.83). This adds to the substantial evidence base that has previously identified cannabis use to associate with increased risk of schizophrenia, by suggesting that the relationship is causal. Such robust evidence may inform public health messages about cannabis use, especially regarding its potential mental health consequences.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it