Forecasting Trends in Invasive Pneumococcal Disease among Elderly Adults in Quebec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background. In Canada, the current recommendation is to offer PPV23 to adults ≥ 65 years. PCV13 is now licensed for adults. Methods. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in adults 65–74 years of age in the Quebec notifiable diseases registry were classified into five serotype categories. Poisson regression models were fitted to monthly rates observed in 2000–2014 and predictions were made for 2015–2024, using theoretical assumptions regarding indirect effects of childhood vaccination and serotype replacement. Results. IPD rates caused by PCV7 serotypes decreased markedly since PCV7 introduction for children in December 2004. This trend is also underway for additional PCV13 serotypes except serotype 3. Additional PPV23 serotypes and nonvaccine serotypes have been on rise since 2004 and this is expected to continue. A small decrease in overall IPD incidence in the next decade is predicted. The proportion of PCV13 serotypes represented 33% of IPD cases in 2014 and would be 20% (95% CI: 15% to 28%) in 2024. PPV23 coverage was 53% in 2014 and is expected to be 47% (95% CI: 26% to 85%) in 2024. Conclusion. The potential usefulness of a combined PCV13 + PPV23 program for elderly adults would decrease over time but PCV13 would be the only option to prevent serotype 3 IPD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".