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Record W2585081744 · doi:10.2118/0816-0014-jpt

Guest Editorial: Lessons for a Downturn

2016· editorial· en· W2585081744 on OpenAlexaff
George E. King

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Petroleum Technology · 2016
Typeeditorial
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicReservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
Canadian institutionsApache (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconomicsBoomBusinessEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Guest editorial Downturns offer you a choice: panic and shut down all but breathing or make use of the opportunities that desperation has handed you. What? In the good times of a price boom, we have no time, and usually no impetus, to alter the way we work and how we apply science and technology. This activity breeds inefficiency and waste, but the flow of easy profits is like an opioid drug, blinding forward-looking senses that should warn us that a price bust may be around the next corner with a demand reduction, manufacturing slowdown, renewable energy advance, or an upset in political alignments. The world currently needs the energy density and reliability of fossil fuels, but high cost and inefficient use will eventually kill this golden goose. Often, when the good times end, we pull back, believing all the while that the next boom and easy profits are just around the corner if we can just hold on. This is the recipe for bankruptcy. Every wave of a technology powerful enough to alter the economic landscape in any industry has a life span divided into three parts: an often rough beginning, a period of growth where the technology reaches a zenith of efficiency, and the inevitable plateau where we think it cannot be exceeded or replaced. All the while, a new technology is often quietly building that can upset our comfortable operations world. The history of the oil field is littered with the memories of companies that ignored developments by overreaching only for the profits made available by a boom and ignoring the future. While some would like to believe that wildcatters’ luck will drive the next upturn, the promises of unconventional formations will not be unlocked by chance. An attempt to express the problem might start with a small modification to the proverb, “There are none so deaf as those who will not listen.” Better Practices So, what is to be done in a downturn? Those on the science side of production companies can use the time to review each part of well performance with the objective of looking for better practices than the “best” practices that we have unconsciously limited ourselves to. Operators accepting this path often come out stronger after a slump. Gains in efficiency, generated from a better understanding of a company’s well-development practices, remain after oil prices rebound and supplier discounts disappear. The enablers are keeping and supporting a technological staff that is capable of learning prior to and while in survival mode, plus a management team that is wiser about how and where to invest before and after prices rebound. Most of all, it requires tearing down some barriers that “successful experience” has erected to the abandoning of methods with which we have become accustomed.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Research integrity
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Editorial · Consensus signal: Editorial
Teacher disagreement score0.063
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0030.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.301
Teacher spread0.292 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEditorial

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2016
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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