Dynamics of Canadian Trade Pattern: A Time-Series Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyses the trends and directions of exports and imports of Canada using the time series data for the period 1981 to 2014. Instantaneous and compound growth rates are calculated by using the log-linear regression model in conjunction with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting future exports and imports. The results of this study show that there is an increasing trend for both exports and imports. As far as the growth rates are concerned, the two estimated log-linear models depict a comprehensive annual picture of Canadian merchandise trade. The exports grow at an instantaneous rate of 4.46% and at a slightly higher than compound annual growth rate of 4.6%. The overall growth rate of imports is 5.41% and compound annual growth rate is 5.27%. The compound growth rate is marginally higher than the instantaneous growth rate.The results of the Johansen test for analyzing the long-run relationship between export, import and GDP have further demonstrated that the variables are co-integrated, and have established a long-run association among them.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".