Prediction of the Transient Stability Boundary Based on Nonparametric Additive Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper applies modern statistical nonparametric methodology to the problem of prediction of the transient stability boundary of large-scale power engineering systems. The stability issue is characterized by the critical clearing time (CCT) that is employed to determine whether a precontingency steady-state condition is stable for a given fault in the power system. The multidimensional mapping between the precontingency steady-state conditions and the corresponding CCT is modeled as an additive structure of one-dimensional functions. Nonparametric kernel estimation methods are applied to the assumed additive model yielding the boundary prediction algorithm that is easily interpretable and avoids the curse of dimensionality. The precision of our additive nonlinear modeling is demonstrated in the context of fault prediction of the 470-bus power network. For the specified fault type, we demonstrate a stronger prediction accuracy compared to other large-scale machine learning methods that have been used for the transient stability boundary problem so far.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".