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Record W2593111057 · doi:10.2866/716127

A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring

2017· preprint· en· W2593111057 on OpenAlex
Filippo Natoli, Laura Sigalotti

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueEconstor (Econstor) · 2017
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicItaly: Economic History and Contemporary Issues
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAnchoringInflation (cosmology)OddsEconomicsEconometricsQuarter (Canadian coin)Logistic regressionTerm (time)Financial crisisMonetary economicsKeynesian economicsStatisticsPsychologyMathematicsGeographySocial psychology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We compare the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom, focusing on the post-crisis period. First of all, we estimate a set of measures of average and tail correlation using inflation swaps and options, following Natoli and Sigalotti (2016). To quantify the degree of anchoring, we also propose a new indicator based on the results of a logistic regression, measuring the odds that strong negative shocks to short-term expectations are channelled to large declines in long-term expectations. The results reveal, for the euro area, an increase in the de-anchoring risk during the last quarter of 2014; while showing a significant reduction after the peak, our de-anchoring indicator remains high and volatile in 2015 and 2016. Expectations in the US and UK are instead found to be firmly anchored.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.526
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.036
GPT teacher head0.241
Teacher spread0.205 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it