Interdecadal Variability of the ENSO–North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation in Winter
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The interdecadal change in the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. There are two prominent modes of winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability in the North Pacific: the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection and the Aleutian Low (AL). The relationship between ENSO and the WP-AL patterns changed notably around the late 1970s. From 1957 to 1975, during the mature phase of ENSO, significant sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) occurred, mainly in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean; the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern resembles the negative phase of a WP teleconnection pattern. In contrast, for the 1978–2011 period, significant negative SSTAs were observed in the western and extratropical Pacific in both hemispheres, with some significant positive SSTAs appearing over the eastern Pacific. This is in agreement with the defined regions of a mega-ENSO, the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern resembles the AL mode. Further analysis suggests that a negative–positive anomaly pattern in the 500 hPa geopotential height throughout the entire North Pacific, possibly enhanced by the SSTAs in the extratropical North Pacific associated with the mature phase of ENSO, is responsible for modulating the relationship between ENSO and the North Pacific atmospheric circulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".