Outsource planning with asymmetric supply cost information through a menu of option contracts
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper investigates a supply contract design by a dominant manufacturer who faces a stochastic demand during a selling season. The manufacturer has several estimations of the supplier's cost with corresponding probabilities, that is, asymmetric cost information. The manufacturer designs a menu of call option contracts that include three variables: a supply order, an option, and an exercise price. We determine the optimal negative correlation between option and exercise prices as well as closed‐form formulas for the optimal supply orders. The results show that in the optimal menu of contracts either the option or the exercise price may be omitted from the menu, whereas the supply orders should always be customized for each supplier type. We show that in this problem, optimal profit assignment between contract partners under put and bidirectional option contracts is the same as call option contract studied. Numerical analysis including managerial insights is presented.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it