Bayesian Modelling of Tuberculosis Risk Factors in South Africa 2014
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Although the number of deaths has declined since 2007, Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be the number one cause of death in South Africa. To create a country free of TB, there is need for continued research to explore models that will provide the Department of Health with new interventions. Aim: This study was aimed at identifying the risk factors of active self-reported TB prevalence for South Africa in 2014. Methods: The Frequentist Logistic Regression (FLR) approach was applied on a sample of 19213 individuals taken from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS) wave data. Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors were used to model Wave 1 to 3 data and elicitation of the obtained posterior density parameters by averaging done to obtain the informative priors used to model wave 4. The wave 4 results obtained under the two estimation approaches were compared as well as the results for non-informative and informative priors. Results: The findings show that self-reported TB prevalence is higher than the reported 1%, Human Immuno Deficiency Virus (HIV) remains a major threat to TB and Eastern Cape is the province mostly affected by TB with Limpopo recording the least prevalence. Poor living conditions and lower socio-economic conditions continue to be drivers of TB whilst English illiteracy, lack of Secondary/Tertiary education, alcohol consumption, marital status, gender and age groups also influence TB progression to disease. FLR yielded similar results to Bayesian with non-informative priors whilst the results are more precise for informative priors. Conclusion: This study identified individuals and communities at risk of developing active TB disease in South Africa.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".