Seasonal forcing and exponential threshold incidence in cholera dynamics
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We propose a seasonal forcing iSIR (indirectly transmitted SIR) model with a modified incidence function, due to the fact that the seasonal fluctuations can be the main culprit for cholera outbreaks. For this nonautonomous system, we provide a sufficient condition for the persistence and the existence of a periodic solution. Furthermore, we provide a sufficient condition for the global stability of the periodic solution. Finally, we present some simulation examples for both autonomous and nonautonomous systems. Simulation results exhibit dynamical complexities, including the bistability of the autonomous system, an unexpected outbreak of cholera for the nonautonomous system, and possible outcomes induced by sudden weather events. Comparatively the nonautonomous system is more realistic in describing the indirect transmission of cholera. Our study reveals that the relative difference between the value of immunological threshold and the peak value of bacterial biomass is critical in determining the dynamical behaviors of the system.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it