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Record W2597275866 · doi:10.1093/global/gux002

Interwar Financial Summits: The Economic Consequences and Lessons of Attempts to Repair a Broken World

2016· article· en· W2597275866 on OpenAlexaff
Christopher Kobrak

Bibliographic record

VenueGlobal Summitry · 2016
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicPolitical and Economic history of UK and US
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconomicsPolitical scienceEconomic history

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Very few of us realize with conviction the intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organization by which Western Europe lived for the last half century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly. … Moved by insane delusion and reckless self-regard, the German people overturned the foundations on which we all lived and built. But the spokesmen of the French and British peoples have run the risk of completing the ruin … by a Peace, which, if it is carried into effect, must impair yet further, when it might have restored, the delicate, complicated organization, already shaken and broken by war, through which alone the European peoples can employ themselves and live. (Keynes 1920) Political summits with economic and financial consequences have a long history. Reparation payments accompanied Napoleon’s peace agreement with Prussia in 1807 and Prussia’s peace agreement with France in 1871. The Vienna Conference following Napoleon’s defeat was not about finance principally, but it not only stipulated reparations for the victors, its framework for international stability also helped set the stage for nearly 100 years of economic development supported by the growth of new financial institutions and nearly unprecedented financial cohesion. As former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger observed, these financial settlements provided a model for future ones by not posing a mortal threat to any nation’s survival, thereby preserving a basis for future negotiation and consensus (Kissinger 1956). During that 100-year period, there were many “summits”— meetings of heads of governments or their senior representatives which were usually bilateral, but not always. Some might even be classified as “family reunions.” In addition, there were many meetings of high-ranking experts, sometimes representing private interests or their nations, but financial cooperation, as opposed to bilateral investment, was rarely an important item on the agenda when heads of state met. Before World War I, a government’s role in economic activity and finance in general was much more subdued (Flandreau and James 2003). Notwithstanding growing nationalism, the decades preceding World War I witnessed a burst of international cooperation and meetings. Technology both helped facilitate conferences and make them less necessary. Between 1900 and 1914, over 300 nongovernmental and thirteen governmental international organizations were created, dealing with subjects as diverse as health care and technical specifications. The creation of the organizations often followed a conference on the topic. Labor and business met and organized on an international level. A Union of International Associations was even founded in 1910 by 137 international groups and headquartered in Brussels to coordinate the schedules of the many international conferences and congresses (Hale 1971). None of these institutions or organization dealt with financial matters. Despite periodic financial crises and more regular departures from the strict norms of the Gold Standard, central bankers, ministers of finance, and private banking experts convened sporadically with little or no institutional structure. Between 1874 and 1913, most major currencies remained convertible into gold; most exchange rates remained relatively stable; inflation remained low and relatively steady; long-term interest rates stayed low and steady; and economic growth and trade remained vigorous (Eichengreen 1992b; Ferguson 2001). Even though the system did not function as automatically as hoped, key players understood the rules of the game of global finance sufficiently and the mechanisms functioned adequately, so face-to-face meeting of private and public leaders hardly ever occurred even during crises. be public and private and as and sometimes from to to cooperation meetings were often with the through 1914, financial leaders of and central or to the major or the role of in the system of exchange meetings relatively and or even technical over financial of a more to a in the of As economic in a few of from a as it to 1914, most major were and currencies were no convertible the of World War I, that were in and the in the the which a major nations, was of the and financial in not be a a is often as a meeting heads of for the of I meetings of senior public and even private leaders to the financial that World War some and by and there were financial or private bankers, or a of both central bankers, and of of but not meetings were organized and by the new of The meetings to be but some were not as as international financial is the of organized international of economic and of financial to the of the can be to of the players summits were from Western Europe and but some of the meetings were global in were by heads of state or finance, but the was by experts from private and public organizations in Europe and The and of were international and in that The as an for the of and Before World War I, the leaders of most a about to the financial system and the was not of and did not financial the players a set of of the that consensus in the of the economic and not only and but also the financial that and in the of global economic In of in the war, the to meetings of senior and international organizations to the that was the of the In the of is the of the of in a that and the and of summits and these summits with the of about on I on the summits of the and the technical that the meetings the of of financial and to banking and by is to from meetings. I that these as much as from and no for dealing with it is that not and that both and A in can us the but is no that we can the be if did is not in even though some of their and for not following years of can of the of to interests and to their in and in most the economic summits were a that be the the The summits have or even the of the key leaders as central and to financial into the But the summits did not the economic of the years and a of global in the The of and economic experts the of and institutions of to the of over the of the of to the advantages of international consensus to and of on financial of dealing with the The for that the of World War I and the of the to in and the in global and economic by the both and the of the a to have an the by and financial experts to the in international during the The to the in the have to the long-term The were to a of private to the from financial of the the to the to the and financial leaders of the many of the and interest of the and on the German of the and economic a But the these the the financial and The and all to the that and economic As as the were so that there to be no to and no were even the for and the into a and for the many of its the with on to long the and and trade cooperation more more and In of German economic on the France on and cooperation the war, to for economic and The of the war, of was and from and people of The in a that through was The and by nearly a and into and in peace The during the nearly half of their and was by and and Despite of the by the were for the were in to be and the of the was to but the in reparations the did not the and of for the financial were the of the and were and created, of an But the of the of was were from their and many of the new remained the of The or and that the and the war, were by a of and long-term and financial World War I the of European and economic the war, most into of or many was The which to the a of from the to 1914, to the in The inflation that from to was not only but also The might have the in Europe of the of but by not the only Some was to the economic their financial The the with alone the The in to its France nearly and from the and the Despite on which to reparations and relatively little was during the the were to be about finance, which the Some that a new congresses and organizations to future for financial to Europe witnessed international the on the of there were international conferences during that these conferences some financial and some temporary from The also for and the in and to some But there were so many and German of and French 2001). The for France and for and international were to the to it the most was the of leaders to the consequences of the and the in the that in to their Some but were for many years the was by the Conference as a of the British British about the relatively of about the of and the of the French any of European to the of the the of the U.S. to French leaders their people that German reparations the by the the from France German and from its and its to in any a in France In the of were by and to the was the of French for and The important economic to a European that the in the German the a for future payments that German if not the to their that not only the conference the economic of the war, but that it also was the of a of European leaders their to trade and yet as to a new long-term from the to there be little of future peace and from the of that the and the leaders to from their and set of and which (Keynes in the The and that followed the did little to economic activity and and the economic of the to of but on German and to more the for of to German economic France a of most for and the to on and France and the to the German to their a In to in through and the in long-term by in the in were by that of major of The peace many new international but also many new interests to with and with international the by the war, to A was followed by a and a of banking crises for much of and most of period, and in many remained and economic growth to have an to the of for some German reparations and private to be a to financial were set the of inflation and and a of last in the on and or to the The of the were followed by a of of or with and and about the of the many summits is by most even if there is not agreement about the of reparations or have As the conference to the to economic and financial The conference to by any to employ and on the of the key the conference was the were or on a by the did not their interests in meetings in and during the private financial interests must some of the the about and important financial as a major The of Europe World War The of unprecedented economic in the with European was to the new economic and of hardly be dealt with in any World War I, was already of the its more and over U.S. in was of Western by it only did World War I a in the economic and of a a and its by the of more and But its little or in the of the to be more in the but was not by public was little governmental for a new and the with the of the but many private for in global and economic to make by to on a or to make a few of In by of the the U.S. the of into The was the of and the to and its into from the but did not the the The relatively unprecedented U.S. to international groups of experts and to finance in the were but were The on the Gold in and not was little for the public in many that to In the and for and of their for and were in both to the the have to more rates a the the interest payments to be France the financial of the payments to be in the or in the French a of to the and the but the to more in The U.S. was state the only was German France France was even to to As observed, the of the and France to half and of the in the international to the in development the and the of the The of reparations over the a The set the reparations from alone In the the which set the with and Between and of was in inflation and the and late in on of to the and In some the meetings about to be on conferences to new financial were on the the more to their the Brussels and conferences to as of that with the were to their currencies to and In to dealing with reparations their to the and from the as was often to the The Brussels Conference of was organized by the of with the of financial stability and to exchange with were on from the from and of the were experts, not The U.S. to A it was to The that the Brussels Conference be Even the and some representatives of the were The Conference to But the many new to from and from of to the the of the conference most not on themselves but on the The from which most of the were and which of were to the conference by their As is to on which the which The is to public in to realize the of the and the for public on a basis as a to the of which the Conference Brussels The reparations usually in the of experts, France the on for the Brussels German and experts that payments of and an and be the German was much and the French not nearly the French that the be In a meeting in French and of to the to the for British these not to be a was in France its by payments to of German a the of of which be the was in the was not the The that the were a and to as much as from to for their but these might economic last of in to already in or was to In the British and French governments on a with some long-term some the of the was with of to German and French the The on both of the was and there were few mechanisms to payments were not so but in that were the in As with so many meetings during the few years following the in some but the did not the and of the The of some in trade and many economic the into and organized experts and for future international but even the that the did not the and many important were the meetings to a public and private organizations for cooperation to and in the financial agreement which to of the in trade and general economic and the of the the a of on the the of many leaders to that many economic not for an not from central to its and from the and in the the reparations and that to the central The of in financial and economic was in but the French little in the of During the conference was for the to to The set the reparations payments for and an meeting by in was the French and in to an economic conference in in the and be for the of a to the reparations and the of was that economic in so much that the payments were many of were of the of reparations payments in France was and As a of the over the and the in for the governments to central in to financial and of trade and the into to future as U.S. to an to of the was to was to an which the the meetings to the Gold and to economic growth were on the but reparations remained the and In for to to German French to the new French of and of the over long was on to French of to the to in and were from any of the and economic plans to of the German The Conference to a the The to its by to to a with the and financial on to be a in the to the many leaders in to economic The the from their but to the and payments ministers in in for a on long-term for the The the leaders for not the but the and German to many the have of these were set the of that Europe that France and be the of In of these meetings were financial The key the was the of the meeting and the to to an the to the the which have to with German for Despite the in The that France In less the was the of a new In France the French German and in of German to reparations the the German but the and to and of The German for and for the the of German and was from economic that the the to their German to reparations to for the peace and to ruin its to reparations payments was the for the the the and the the creation and of the an agreement for to the German and the German might a and interest a of the of German reparations payments and the crises over but no on the The for a financial a and some on both of the of the of the during the years of The that occurred were both and payments to a witnessed the and the of German of many in only to in of in with the of the was to to to set a to to with the was a a in the of international financial Despite the government’s to in the financial in the U.S. to a World War was by of the in the Secretary of the In addition, the the Secretary of of the of the and and The on be on the global financial was that the be on and a of of on any A British to in by the of the and of the of to to the U.S. was to for on the it was by to on the about even the and France both the As a a with their with that there was a of about the future is an to the German economic and in the in French and remained in the was the in and for only of Notwithstanding all of these German financial leaders it to the by its new of the the which the a by on by and as for The new was in to the and The was a but not financial and financial in and of understood that the only as a temporary The was only to its but was not the and interest in German the a of In the from in to a of the Even of German and from to to which to a trade But these did not stability in the and to its German of and the of most with or As a often to in only was the of inflation In on to the was the agreement by experts, private and of The no U.S. and was with to that was the payments of the which an important role in The of the meetings on payments the of in French and of the the of German inflation during on by German to the the of the and the of the French The of in the of to the was a to the of the to on its of private payments and to representatives to meetings and to the U.S. a of experts to the reparations was a The from the and the The experts were of and The was by was of the and the for in European and by Secretary but were not U.S. was by the to the reparations European representatives were central the French of on international of government’s and reparations The was long and the of the of experts to on the that from to the As the was there to the of the German their that their But the new of the was with the was in a that the but only a of experts to the of the and for a of as also that the to for The nearly to a of which reparations payments in the a international to its and for reparations The a to the The that less half of the payments be by the to half of on and as a on these is that payments be as as a the the and the German that for any of these to be have to its for inflation and exchange rates were necessary. the that the have more from the The of the was an to to from the from and the from France and The all to all their in inflation and in private and the stage for growth from to But even the there were the German was on U.S. and in many private and public in The was an a of economic to a for Europe World War I by the reparations The that was the of the was which a in private to growth and But the basis of the as the leaders the of many in the reparations were not dealt with of as an to in the into with little of the from on the of from the to to for reparations to the and in to for their to the Despite the many the German was and German so much of the and German institutions to an in to the of reparations and economic the was not In the of financial leaders from and Europe met in for was the most important financial conference of the of the meeting a to the of the in and governments about the for the was from A new was in but most to some to was more to make The conference was by new to on the The to make that the were not as U.S. The on reparations payments and for to to that inflation and to to the The only the French was a of in their from the the of into Europe and the themselves to the many that conferences have any of the for a few years of an be no Even these were met with in the German the British and in U.S. banking to in and that if of payments be and an was to that the The to from inflation which be on by The experts on to some but a of payments to and that much of the private from the the role of the was by a private by But by about the of the private the U.S. a of the private the of the were sometimes hardly the new of risk The for of the were by the of the the French even the German governments its The of many but by the into were to In the agreement to make an to the German and The a with a The the for the long-term of the and private of both public and were in of The helped some of by but the in a on the trade on and and an exchange the both and about a of Some that the did not its to the the U.S. of the private in in was the of the were nearly all The was so that the was over a new of international to the for in nearly over the World War German in of its to of was by the of the German for of the in the the much with their new which to the and economic World War I, the U.S. of was relatively The U.S. for was only of little from was a about the be to or for In the the were not and their new and German and of the to which were to the and for for a their The was that inflation not the of the German on a basis and was of financial Some were about the The the the a on to the German but the of its was that German might be the of The the with the from the of the it also that new to might for The of the have some on into by but the is German during the inflation and The most of the was of a German with which it for years but which on during the inflation The was in the but the to U.S. was the of to in and their which to private and public to the as and followed in the but the of was in to the or no that about the to which central cooperation the economic but that the cooperation was bilateral and less that following the World War I and central in the were already of an their were not of public and rarely met to coordinate were relatively and by which a or by if a was and by and usually of and in the of and private many of the of central in the and which central relatively Even and not be in a major international cooperation was sometimes to with a as that in in the of the but was by and face-to-face meetings. During the and of in the of central much as have in the a during the In and their was the of their The of a World War I and the Conference a for Even an international international payments not to and The of central in the by and of the the did not even have a central World War The central a of in the International cooperation or of a of central to their central to that and banking stability to be set in the of international The of to the international an role for central cooperation in many the of to be as The were the of central but central as their James During the of central of of of and The of central in the was not The of dealing with international financial their and to coordinate economic their on in or and in a with but the to with the in through the banking crises of but of meetings to be meetings were to for meetings with the for were to with in Some were about a more organization of central to for European and economic As of an of experts, and that a by the Conference in with that a to the to its to finance by their and into a of The of central cooperation have to of their on on the Gold some of and on As the by some to to the Gold have and have Some In the on its a of but a that the and British to in from to Despite these for to of Even with the and was In a new by was government’s for of the and in the on the Gold the In a France to but a the The French and central a of to French financial and it from economic for the creation of (Eichengreen The to the to the Gold Standard, was the of the of the of the in 1913, the that to nearly of the Even the with all the economic advantages from and late into the war, have some in to its were with the which the with and of their were only for on the Gold a of economic or the of currencies in an of a of and the on the in

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.008
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Qualitative · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.024
Threshold uncertainty score0.048

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.008
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.003
Science and technology studies0.0070.015
Scholarly communication0.0100.008
Open science0.0010.005
Research integrity0.0030.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0090.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.025
GPT teacher head0.301
Teacher spread0.276 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designQualitative
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2016
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venueGlobal SummitrySame topicPolitical and Economic history of UK and USFrench-language works237,207