Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global inflationary pressures have been building over the last 12 months. These rising pressures reflect emergence from the global recession of 2001–2 and fiscal laxity in several of the world's largest economies, as well as a number of temporary factors such as rising commodity prices and indirect tax increases. Inflation expectations, as reflected by yield differences between indexed and ordinary government debt, have edged up in the US, the Euro Area and the UK, as illustrated in Chart 1. US and UK inflation expectations are about 0.8 percentage points higher than at the start of 2003, while Euro Area inflation expectations have risen by about 0.4 percentage points. Our inflation projections for the major economies are reported in Table 1. We forecast an acceleration of inflation in the US, Germany, France and the UK this year relative to 2003, and expect deflation in Japan to come to an end from the middle of 2004. Stronger inflationary pressures in the US partly reflect the positive output gap, while output gaps in Canada and the Euro Area are expected to remain negative until the end of 2005 and 2006, respectively. Our output gap estimates are illustrated in Chart 2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.098 | 0.074 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".