Population dynamics of the northern tamarisk beetle (<em>Diorhabda carinulata</em>) in the Colorado River Basin
Bibliographic record
Abstract
First posted May 1, 2018 For additional information, contact: SBSC Staff, Southwest Biological Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey2255 N. Gemini DriveFlagstaff, AZ 86001 Throughout the Southwestern United States, riparian systems contain narrow belts of vegetation along streams and rivers. Although only a small percentage of the total land cover, this ecosystem is important for maintaining high species diversity and population densities of birds. Anthropogenic changes to Western riverine systems have enhanced their susceptibility to invasion by introduced plant species, in particular, ornamental plants from the genus Tamarix (or saltcedar), which can establish itself in dry, salty conditions and spread rapidly. Recently, the central Asian saltcedar leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) was released as a biocontrol for tamarisk. Since its release on the Colorado Plateau, tamarisk beetle populations in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming have widely expanded, leading to widespread tamarisk defoliation, and concerns from land managers regarding the consequences of the environmental impact. Defoliation can also negatively impact avian communities in the short term by decreasing insect abundance and nesting success, owing to increased solar radiation or loss of camouflage. This report details two studies that examine the spread of the introduced tamarisk beetle over parts of the Southwestern United States. The first chapter documents plant phenology and beetle abundance and movement along the Dolores and San Juan Rivers, two major tributaries of the Colorado River. This study demonstrates that D. carinulata population-movement patterns can be highly influenced by the availability of beetle food resources and that local beetle “boom and bust” events are common. The second study demonstrates that the extent and timing of tamarisk defoliation are predictable on the basis of (1) abiotic cues for D. carinulata activity, (2) spatial distributions and abundances of D. carinulata across a site, and (3) movement of D. carinulata as a result of available tamarisk foliage. A significant positive correlation exists between the spatial distributions of D. carinulata populations in the fall and those of the first generation of larvae in the following spring, suggesting that the extent of tamarisk defoliation as a result of abundant larval populations is predictable. The results of these two studies will enable conservationists to better understand the variable timing of tamarisk defoliation events across a landscape and provide a template to forecast tamarisk defoliation levels and rates in areas that have yet to be colonized by D. carinulata.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".