Local adaptations and phenotypic plasticity may render gypsy moth and nun moth future pests in northern European boreal forests
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phenotypic plasticity and local adaptations are important factors in predicting range expansions and shifts of pest insects in a changing climate. We reared two lepidopteran forest pests, Lymantria monacha (Linnaeus) and Lymantria dispar (Linnaeus), at three climatically different field sites from central Germany to northern Finland to investigate differences among populations in plasticity in the timing of pupation and adult emergence (measured as cumulative temperature sums, degree-days >5 °C), pupal mass, and duration of the pupal period. We also compared the phenologies of continental and boreal L. monacha populations feeding on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) to reveal possible local adaptations. Lymantria dispar was reared on different host plants, Quercus robur L., Betula pendula Roth, and Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii (Orl.) Hämet-Ahti, to evaluate the possibilities of a range expansion northwards. There was stronger indication of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, which enables species to cope with changing environmental conditions, in continental L. dispar and boreal L. monacha populations than in the continental L. monacha population. Differences between boreal and continental L. monacha populations may denote adaptation to local conditions. All three host plants used for L. dispar proved suitable for the species, revealing that host plant availability would not limit its range expansion in northern Europe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".