TRANSACTIONS COSTS, EXTENT OF INEFFICIENCIES, ENTRIES AND MULTIPLE WAGERS IN A RACETRACK BETTING MODEL
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AbstractIn a previous paper (Management Science, December 1981) Hausch, Ziemba and Rubinstein (HZR) developed a system that demonstrated the existence of a weak market inefficiency in racetrack place and show betting pools. The system appeared to make possible substantial positive profits. To make the system operational, given the limited time available for placing bets, an approximate regression scheme was developed for the Exhibition Park Racetrack in Vancouver for initial betting wealth between $2500 and $7500 and a track take of 17.1%. This paper: (1) extends this scheme to virtually any track and initial wealth level; (2) develops a modified system for multiple horse entries; (3) allows for multiple bets; (4) analyzes the effects of the track take and breakage on profits; (5) presents recent results using this system; and (6) considers the extent of the inefficiency, i.e., how much can be bet before the market becomes efficient?
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".