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Record W2603287415

Discrete-Time Survival Trees

2007· article· fr· W2603287415 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.

Bibliographic record

VenueLes Cahiers du GERAD · 2007
Typearticle
Languagefr
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversité de MontréalResearch Unit on Children's Psychosocial MaladjustmentUniversity of British ColumbiaHEC Montréal
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCategorical variableStatisticsCovariateInterpretabilityMathematicsSurvival analysisArtificial intelligenceComputer science
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Tree-based methods are frequently used in studies with censored survival time. Their structure and ease of interpretability make them useful to identify prognostic factors and to predict conditional survival probabilities given an individual's covariates. The existing methods are tailor-made to deal with a survival time variable that is measured continuously. However, survival variables measured on a discrete scale are often encountered in practice. The authors propose a new tree construction method specifically adapted to such discrete-time survival variables. The splitting procedure can be seen as an extension, to the case of right-censored data, of the entropy criterion for a categorical outcome. The selection of the final tree is made through a pruning algorithm combined with a bootstrap correction. The authors also present a simple way of potentially improving the predictive performance of a single tree through bagging. A simulation study shows that single trees and bagged-trees perform well compared to a parametric model. A real data example investigating the usefulness of personality dimensions in predicting early onset of cigarette smoking is presented. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 17-32; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada Arbres de survie a temps discret Les methodes d'arbres sont frequemment utilisees lors d'etudes impliquant des donnees censurees. La structure d'un arbre ainsi que la facilite avec laquelle il peut etre interprete font de lui un outil utile afin d'identifier des facteurs de pronostique et de predire les probabilites de survie conditionnelles d'un individu etant donne ses covariables. Les methodes existantes ont ete developpees pour traiter une variable temporelle continue. En pratique, il arrive frequemment que la variable mesurant le temps de survie soit mesuree selon une echelle discrete. Les auteurs proposent une nouvelle methode pour construire un arbre qui est specialement adaptee aux variables de survie a temps discret. Le critere de division peut etre vu comme etant une extension, au cas de censure a droite, du critere d'entropie pour une variable categorielle. La selection de l'arbre final est basee sur une methode d'elagage combinee avec une correction bootstrap. Les auteurs presentent egalement une methode simple pour ameliorer, potentiellement, la performance d'un seul arbre avec le bagging. Une etude par simulation montre que des arbres seuls et des arbres “bagges” performent bien comparativement a un modele parametrique. Les auteurs presentent aussi une illustration de la nouvelle methode avec des vraies donnees qui investiguent l'utilite d'utiliser des dimensions de la personnalite afin de prevoir le debut de l'utilisation de la cigarette. La revue canadienne de statistique 37: 17-32; 2009 © 2009 Societe statistique du Canada

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.201
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.025
GPT teacher head0.316
Teacher spread0.292 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it