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THE RATE OF BINARY BLACK HOLE MERGERS INFERRED FROM ADVANCED LIGO OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING GW150914
B. P. Abbott, R. Abbott, T. D. Abbott, M. R. Abernathy, F. Acernese, K. Ackley, C. Adams, T. Adams, P. Addesso, R. X. Adhikari, V. B. Adya, C. Affeldt, M. Agathos, K. Agatsuma, N. Aggarwal, O. D. Aguiar, L. Aiello, A. Ain, P. Ajith, B. Allen, A. Allocca, P. A. Altin, S. B. Anderson, W. G. Anderson, K. Arai, M. C. Araya, C. C. Arceneaux, J. S. Areeda, N. Arnaud, K. G. Arun, S. Ascenzi, G. Ashton, M. Ast, S. M. Aston, P. Astone, P. Aufmuth, C. Aulbert, S. Babak, P. Bacon, M. K. M. Bader, P. T. Baker, F. Baldaccini, G. Ballardin, S. W. Ballmer, J. C. Barayoga, S. E. Barclay, B. C. Barish, D. Barker, F. Barone, B. Barr, L. Barsotti, M. Barsuglia, D. Barta, J. Bartlett, I. Bartos, R. Bassiri, A. Basti, J. C. Batch, C. Baune, V. Bavigadda, M. Bazzan, B. Behnke, M. Bejger, A. S. Bell, C. Bell, B. K. Berger, J. Bergman, G. Bergmann, C. P. L. Berry, D. Bersanetti, A. Bertolini, J. Betzwieser, S. Bhagwat, R. Bhandare, I. A. Bilenko, G. Billingsley, J. Birch, R. Birney, S. Biscans, A. Bisht, M. Bitossi, C. Biwer, M. A. Bizouard, J. K. Blackburn, C. D. Blair, D. G. Blair, R. M. Blair, S. Bloemen, O. Bock, T. P. Bodiya, M. Boër, G. Bogaert, C. Bogan, A. Bohé, P. Bojtos, C. Bond, F. Bondu, R. Bonnand, B. A. Boom, R. Bork, V. Boschi, S. Bose, Y. Bouffanais, A. Bozzi, C. Bradaschia, P. R. Brady, V. B. Braginsky, M. Branchesi, J. E. Brau, T. Briant, A. Brillet, M. Brinkmann, V. Brisson, P. Brockill, A. F. Brooks, D. Brown, N. M. Brown, C. C. Buchanan, A. Buikema, T. Bulik, H. J. Bulten, A. Buonanno, D. Buskulic, C. Buy, R. L. Byer, L. Cadonati, G. Cagnoli, C. Cahillane, J. Calderón Bustillo, T. A. Callister, E. Calloni, J. B. Camp, K. C. Cannon, J. Cao, C. D. Capano, E. Capocasa, F. Carbognani, S. Caride, J. Casanueva Diaz, C. Casentini, S. Caudill, M. Cavaglià, F. Cavalier, R. Cavalieri, G. Cella, C. Cepeda, L. Cerboni Baiardi, G. Cerretani, E. Cesarini, R. Chakraborty, T. Chalermsongsak, S. J. Chamberlin, M. Chan, S. Chao, P. Charlton, E. Chassande‐Mottin, Yu‐Hung Chen, C. Cheng, A. Chincarini, A. Chiummo, H. S. Cho, M. Cho, J. H. Chow, N. Christensen, Q. Chu, S. Chua, S. Chung, G. Ciani, F. Clara, J. A. Clark, F. Cleva, E. Coccia, P.‐F. Cohadon, A. Colla, Christophe Collette, L. Cominsky, M. Constancio, A. Conte, L. Conti, D. Cook, T. R. Corbitt, Neil J. Cornish, A. Corsi, S. Cortese, C. A. Costa, M. W. Coughlin, S. B. Coughlin, J.-P. Coulon, S. T. Countryman, P. Couvares, E. E. Cowan, D. M. Coward, M. J. Cowart, D. C. Coyne, R. Coyne, K. Craig, J. D. E. Creighton, J. Cripe, S. G. Crowder, A. Cumming, L. Cunningham, E. Cuoco, T. Dal Canton, S. L. Danilishin, S. D’Antonio, K. Danzmann, N. S. Darman, V. Dattilo, I. Dave, H. Daveloza, M. Davier, G. S. Davies, E. J. Daw, R. Day, D. DeBra, D. DeBra, G. Debreczeni, J. Degallaix, M. De Laurentis, S. Deléglise, W. Del Pozzo, T. Denker, T. Dent, H. Dereli, V. Dergachev, R. De Rosa, R. T. DeRosa, R. DeSalvo, S. Dhurandhar, M. C. Díaz, L. Di Fiore, M. Di Giovanni, A. Di Lieto, S. Di Pace, I. Di Palma, A. Di Virgilio, G. Dojcinoski, V. Dolique, F. Donovan, K. L. Dooley, S. Doravari, R. Douglas, T. P. Downes, M. Drago, R. W. P. Drever, J. C. Driggers, Zhihui Du, S. E. Dwyer, T. B. Edo, M. C. Edwards, A. Effler, H.-B. Eggenstein, P. Ehrens, J. Eichholz, S. S. Eikenberry, W. Engels, R. C. Essick, T. Etzel, M. Evans, T. M. Evans, R. Everett, M. Factourovich, V. Fafone, H. Fair, S. Fairhurst, X. Fan, Q. Fang, S. Farinon, B. Farr, Will M. Farr, M. Favata, M. Fays, H. Fehrmann, M. M. Fejer, I. Ferrante, E. C. Ferreira, F. Ferrini, F. Fidecaro, I. Fiori, D. Fiorucci, R. P. Fisher, R. Flaminio, M. Fletcher, J.-D. Fournier, Sebastián Franco, S. Frasca, F. Frasconi, Z. Frei, A. Freise, R. Frey, T. T. Fricke, P. Fritschel, V. V. Frolov, P. Fulda, M. Fyffe, H. A. Gabbard, J. R. Gair, L. Gammaitoni, S. G. Gaonkar, F. Garufi, Alberto Gatto, G. Gaur, N. Gehrels, G. Gemme, B. Gendre, E. Genin, A. Gennai, J. George, L. Gergely, V. Germain, Archisman Ghosh, S. Ghosh, J. A. Giaime, K. D. Giardina, A. Giazotto, K. Gill, A. Glaefke, E. Goetz, L. Gondán, G. González, A. Gopakumar, Neil Gordon, M. L. Gorodetsky, S. E. Gossan, M. Gosselin, R. Gouaty, C. Graef, P. B. Graff, M. Granata, A. Grant, S. Gras, C. Gray, G. Greco, A. C. Green, P. Groot, H. Grote, S. Grünewald, G. M. Guidi, X. Guo, A. Gupta, Manoj Gupta, K. E. Gushwa, E. K. Gustafson, R. Gustafson, J. J. Hacker, E. D. Hall, G. Hammond, M. Haney, M. M. Hanke, J. Hanks, C. Hanna, M. D. Hannam, J. Hanson, T. Hardwick, J. Harms, I. W. Harry, M. J. Hart, M. T. Hartman, C.‐J. Haster, K. Haughian, A. Heidmann, M. C. Heintze, H. Heitmann, P. Hello, M. Hendry, I. S. Heng, J. Hennig, A. W. Heptonstall, M. Heurs, S. Hild, D. Hoak, K. A. Hodge, D. Hofman, S. E. Hollitt, K. Holt, D. E. Holz, P. Hopkins, David J. Hosken, J. Hough, E. A. Houston, E. J. Howell, Yi-Ming Hu, S. Huang, E. A. Huerta, D. Huet, B. Hughey, S. Husa, S. H. Huttner, T. Huynh–Dinh, A. Idrisy, N. Indik, D. R. Ingram, R. Inta, H. N. Isa, J.-M. Isac, M. Isi, G. Islas, T. Isogai, B. R. Iyer, K. Izumi, T. Jacqmin, H. Jang, K. Jani, P. Jaranowski, S. Jawahar, F. Jiménez‐Forteza, W. W. Johnson, D. I. Jones, R. W. L. Jones, R. J. G. Jonker, L. Ju, K. Haris, C. V. Kalaghatgi, V. Kalogera, S. Kandhasamy, G. Kang, J. B. Kanner, S. Karki, M. Kasprzack, E. Katsavounidis, W. Katzman, S. Kaufer, T. Kaur, K. Kawabe, F. Kawazoe, F. Kéfélian, M. S. Kehl, D. Keitel, D. B. Kelley, W. Kells, R. Kennedy, J. S. Key, A. Khalaidovski, F. Y. Khalili, I. Khan, S. Khan, Z. Khan, Е. А. Хазанов, N. Kijbunchoo, C. Kim, Jinwoo Kim, K. Kim, Namgyu Kim, Namjun Kim, Y.‐M. Kim, E. J. King, P. J. King, D. L. Kinzel, J. S. Kissel, L. Kleybolte, S. Klimenko, S. M. Koehlenbeck, K. Kokeyama, S. Koley, V. Kondrashov, A. Kontos, M. Korobko, W. Z. Korth, I. Kowalska, D. B. Kozak, V. Kringel, B. Krishnan, A. Królak, C. Krueger, P. Kumar, L. Kuo, A. Kutynia, B. D. Lackey, M. Landry, J. Lange, B. Lantz, P. D. Lasky, A. Lazzarini, C. Lazzaro, P. Leaci, S. Leavey, E. O. Lebigot, Chang‐Hwan Lee, H. K. Lee, Hyung Mok Lee, K. Lee, A. Lenon, M. Leonardi, J. R. Leong, N. Leroy, N. Letendre, Y. Levin, B. M. Levine, T. G. F. Li, A. Libson, T. B. Littenberg, N. A. Lockerbie, J. Logue, A. L. Lombardi, J. E. Lord, M. Lorenzini, V. Loriette, M. Lormand, G. Losurdo, J. D. Lough, H. Lück, A. P. Lundgren, J. Luo, Ryan S. Lynch, Y. Ma, T. MacDonald, B. Machenschalk, M. MacInnis, D. M. Macleod, F. Magaña‐Sandoval, R. M. Magee, M. Mageswaran, E. Majorana, I. Maksimovic, V. Malvezzi, N. Man, Ilya Mandel, V. Mandic, V. Mangano, G. L. Mansell, M. Mantovani, F. Marchesoni, F. Marion, Szabolcs Márka, Z. Márka, A. S. Markosyan, E. Maros, F. Martelli, Lionel Martellini, I. W. Martin, R. M. Martin, Д. В. Мартынов, J. N. Marx, K. Mason, A. Masserot, T. J. Massinger, M. Masso‐Reid, F. Matichard, L. Matone, N. Mavalvala, N. Mazumder, G. Mazzolo, R. McCarthy, D. E. McClelland, S. McCormick, S. C. McGuire, G. McIntyre, J. McIver, D. J. McManus, S. T. McWilliams, D. Meacher, G. D. Meadors, J. Meidam, A. Melatos, G. Mendell, D. Mendoza-Gandara, R. A. Mercer, E. L. Merilh, M. Merzougui, S. Meshkov, C. Messenger, C. Messick, P. M. Meyers, F. Mezzani, H. Miao, C. Michel, H. Middleton, Е. Е. Михайлов, L. Milano, J. Miller, M. Millhouse, Y. Minenkov, J. Ming, S. Mirshekari, C. Mishra, S. Mitra, O. Miyakawa, G. Mitselmakher, R. Mittleman, A. Moggi, M. Mohan, M. Mondin, M. Montani, B. C. Moore, C. J. Moore, D. Moraru, G. Moreno, S. R. Morriss, K. Mossavi, B. Mours, C. M. Mow–Lowry, C. Mueller, G. Mueller, A. W. Muir, Arunava Mukherjee, D. Mukherjee, Suvodip Mukherjee, N. Mukund, A. Mullavey, J. Münch, D. Murphy, P. G. Murray, A. Mytidis, I. Nardecchia, L. Naticchioni, R. K. Nayak, V. Necula, K. Nedkova, G. Nelemans, M. Néri, A. Neunzert, G. Newton, T. Nguyen, A. B. Nielsen, S. Nissanke, A. Nitz, F. Nocera, D. Nolting, M. E. N. Normandin, L. K. Nuttall, J. Oberling, E. Ochsner, J. O’Dell, E. Oelker, G. H. Ogin, J. J. Oh, S. H. Oh, F. Ohme, M. Oliver, P. Oppermann, Richard J. Oram, B. O’Reilly, R. O’Shaughnessy, D. J. Ottaway, R. S. Ottens, H. Overmier, B. J. Owen, A. Pai, S. A. Pai, J. R. Palamos, O. Palashov, C. Palomba, A. Pal‐Singh, H. Pan, C. Pankow, F. Pannarale, B. C. Pant, F. Paoletti, A. Paoli, M. A. Papa, H. R. Paris, W. Parker, D. Pascucci, A. Pasqualetti, R. Passaquieti, D. Passuello, B. Patricelli, Z. Patrick, B. L. Pearlstone, M. Pedraza, R. Pedurand, L. Pekowsky, A. Pele, A. Perreca, M. Phelps, O. J. Piccinni, M. Pichot, F. Piergiovanni, V. Pierro, G. Pillant, L. Pinard, I. M. Pinto, M. Pitkin, R. Poggiani, P. Popolizio, E. K. Porter, A. Post, J. Powell, J. Prasad, V. Predoi, S. S. Premachandra, T. Prestegard, Larry R. Price, M. Prijatelj, M. Principe, S. Privitera, G. A. Prodi, L. Prokhorov, O. Puncken, M. Punturo, P. Puppo, M. Pürrer, H. Qi, J. Qin, V. Quetschke, E. A. Quintero, R. Quitzow-James, F. J. Raab, D. S. Rabeling, H. Radkins, P. Raffai, S. Raja, M. Rakhmanov, P. Rapagnani, V. Raymond, M. Razzano, V. Re, J. Read, C. M. Reed, T. Regimbau, L. Rei, S. Reid, D. H. Reitze, H. Rew, S. D. Reyes, K. Riles, N. A. Robertson, R. Robie, F. Robinet, A. Rocchi, L. Rolland, J. G. Rollins, V. J. Roma, R. Romano, G. Romanov, J. H. Romie, D. Rosińska, S. Rowan, A. Rüdiger, P. Ruggi, K. Ryan, S. Sachdev, E. Ruiz Morales, L. Sadeghian, L. Salconi, M. Saleem, F. Salemi, A. Samajdar, L. Sammut, L. M. Sampson, E. J. Sanchez, V. Sandberg, B. Sandeen, J. R. Sanders, B. Sassolas, B. S. Sathyaprakash, P. R. Saulson, O. Sauter, R. L. Savage, A. Sawadsky, P. Schale, R. Schilling, P. Schmidt, R. Schnabel, R. M. S. Schofield, A. Schönbeck, E. Schreiber, D. Schuette, B. F. Schutz, J. Scott, S. M. Scott, D. Sellers, A. S. Sengupta, D. Sentenac, V. Sequino, A. Sergeev, G. Serna, Y. Setyawati, A. Sêvigny, D. A. Shaddock, S. Shah, M. S. Shahriar, M. Shaltev, Z. Shao, B. Shapiro, P. Shawhan, A. Sheperd, D. H. Shoemaker, D. M. Shoemaker, K. Siellez, X. Siemens, D. Sigg, A. D. Silva, D. Simakov, A. Singer, L. P. Singer, A. Singh, R. Singh, A. Singhal, A. M. Sintes, B. J. J. Slagmolen, J. R. Smith, N. D. Smith, R. J. E. Smith, E. J. Son, B. Sorazu, F. Sorrentino, T. Souradeep, A. K. Srivastava, A. Staley, M. Steinke, J. Steinlechner, S. Steinlechner, D. Steinmeyer, B. C. Stephens, S. P. Stevenson, R. Stone, K. A. Strain, N. Straniero, G. Stratta, N. A. Strauss, S. Strigin, R. Sturani, A. L. Stuver, T. Z. Summerscales, L. Sun, P. J. Sutton, B. L. Swinkels, M. J. Szczepańczyk, M. Tacca, D. Talukder, D. B. Tanner, M. Tápai, S. P. Tarabrin, A. Taracchini, R. Taylor, T. Theeg, M. P. Thirugnanasambandam, E. G. Thomas, M. Thomas, P. Thomas, K. A. Thorne, K. S. Thorne, E. Thrane, Shubhanshu Tiwari, V. Tiwari, K. V. Tokmakov, C. Tomlinson, M. Tonelli, C. Torres, D. Töyrä, F. Travasso, G. Traylor, D. Trifirò, M. C. Tringali, L. Trozzo, M. Tse, M. Turconi, D. Tuyenbayev, D. Ugolini, A. L. Urban, S. A. Usman, H. Vahlbruch, G. Vajente, G. Valdes, M. Vallisneri, J. F. J. van den Brand, D. C. Vander‐Hyde, L. van der Schaaf, J. V. van Heijningen, M. Vardaro, S. Vass, M. Vasúth, R. Vaulin, A. Vecchio, G. Vedovato, J. Veitch, P. J. Veitch, K. Venkateswara, D. Verkindt, F. Vetrano, A. Viceré, S. Vinciguerra, D. J. Vine, S. Vitale, T. Vo, H. Vocca, C. Vorvick, D. V. Voss, W. D. Vousden, S. P. Vyatchanin, A. R. Wade, L. E. Wade, M. Wade, M. Walker, L. Wallace, S. Walsh, G. Wang, Han Wang, M. Wang, X. Wang, Y. Wang, R. L. Ward, J. Warner, M. Wąs, B. Weaver, L.‐W. Wei, M. Weinert, A. J. Weinstein, R. Weiss, T. Welborn, L. Wen, P. Weßels, T. Westphal, K. Wette, J. T. Whelan, D. J. White, B. F. Whiting, R. D. Williams, A. R. Williamson, J. L. Willis, B. Willke, M. H. Wimmer, W. Winkler, C. C. Wipf, H. Wittel, G. Woan, J. Worden, J. L. Wright, Guanglei Wu, J. Yablon, W. Yam, H. Yamamoto, C. C. Yancey, M. J. Yap, Hang Yu, M. Yvert, A. Zadrożny, L. Zangrando, M. Zanolin, J.-P. Zendri, M. Zevin, F. Zhang, L. Zhang, M. Zhang, Ya Zhang, C. Zhao, M. Zhou, Z. Zhou, X. J. Zhu, M. E. Zucker, S. E. Zuraw, J. Zweizig
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Astrophysical Journal Letters · 2016
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicPulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
Canadian institutionsCanadian Institute for Theoretical AstrophysicsUniversity of Toronto
FundersDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentIstituto Nazionale di Fisica NucleareMinistero dello Sviluppo EconomicoMinistry of Education, IndiaNational Research Foundation of KoreaMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, IndiaNederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekCentre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueIndustry CanadaScience and Technology Facilities CouncilNational Research FoundationGovern de les Illes BalearsEuropean CommissionScience and Engineering Research BoardInstitut des Origines de LyonScottish Universities Physics AllianceRussian Foundation for Basic ResearchScottish Funding CouncilHungarian Scientific Research FundLeverhulme TrustNational Science Foundation
KeywordsLIGOPhysicsGravitational waveBinary black holeAstrophysicsRedshiftBinary numberRange (aeronautics)AstronomyGalaxy
Abstract
ABSTRACT A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of , yielding a p -value for GW150914 of . Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses at redshift (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.008
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.007
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.020
GPT teacher head0.296
Teacher spread0.276 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations388
Published2016
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes