Validation of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation in Manitoba
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at risk to progress to kidney failure. We previously developed the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) to predict progression to kidney failure in patients referred to nephrologists. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the ability of the KFRE to discriminate which patients will progress to kidney failure in an unreferred population. Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using administrative databases. Setting: This study took place in Manitoba, Canada. Measurements: Age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were measured. Methods: We included patients from the Diagnostic Services of Manitoba database with an eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and ACR measured between October 2006 and March 2007. Five-year kidney failure risk was predicted using the 4-variable KFRE and compared with treated kidney failure events from the Manitoba Renal Program database. Sensitivity and specificity for KFRE risk thresholds (3% and 10% over 5 years) were compared with eGFR thresholds (30 and 45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ). Results: Of 1512 included patients, 151 developed kidney failure over the 5-year follow-up period. The 4-variable KFRE showed a superior prognostic discrimination compared with eGFR alone (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] values, 0.90 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.88-0.92] for KFRE vs 0.78 [95% CI: 0.74-0.83] for eGFR). At a 3% threshold over 5 years, the KFRE had a sensitivity of 97% and a specificity of 62%. At 10% risk, sensitivity was 86%, and specificity was 80%. Limitations: Only 11.7% of stage 3-5 CKD patients had simultaneous ACR measurement. The KFRE does not account for other indications for referral such as suspected glomerulonephritis, polycystic kidney disease, and recurrent stone disease. Conclusions: The KFRE has been validated in a population with a demographic and referral profile heretofore untested and performs well at predicting 5-year risk of kidney failure in a population-based sample of Manitobans with CKD stages 3 to 5. Thresholds of 3% and 10% over 5 years are sensitive, specific, and can be used in clinical decision making. Further testing of the 4-variable KFRE and these thresholds in clinical practice should be considered.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.049 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".