Reduction of Cascading Outage Risk Based on Risk Gradient and Markovian Tree Search.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since cascading outages are major threats to power system operations, it is of great significance to reduce the risk of potential cascading outages. In this paper, a method for reduction of cascading outage risk based on Markovian tree (MT) search is proposed. Based on the MT expansion of the cascading outage risk, the risk gradient is computed with a forward-backward tree search scheme. The computation of risk gradient is incorporated into the procedure of risk assessment based on MT search, which is efficient with good convergence. Then the an optimization model for risk reduction (RR) is formulated by using risk gradient, which minimizes the cost of control while effectively reduces the cascading outage risk. Moreover, to overcome the limitation of linearization, an iterative risk reduction (IRR) algorithm is further developed. Test results on a 4-bus test system and the RTS-96 3-area test system verify the accuracy of risk gradient computation and effectiveness of the RR. And the performance of the IRR is demonstrated on RTS-96 3-area system and a 410-bus US-Canada northeast system model. The results show that the subsequent cascade risk and the total risk are reduced by 93.6% and 54.5%, respectively.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".