Changes in Summer Weather Type Frequency in Eastern North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this research, the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC), a weather type scheme, is used as an alternative method of demonstrating evidence of climate change in the Eastern United States and southern Canada. Changes in frequencies for the seven SSC weather types were assessed for summer trends (May–September) at thirty-eight stations and also at four regions of latitude between 1950 and 2015. Using the SSC, results show significant summer decreases in dry polar (DP) days and transitional (TR) days and significant increases in moist tropical (MT) days. The North region exhibited the greatest breadth of significant results among all weather types. The DP and TR decline was strongest at higher latitudes and weakened approaching the subtropics. The MT gain was strongest across the midlatitudes but statistically significant in all four regions. The four remaining SSC weather types showed more localized statistically significant trends. Results suggest that these trends in weather type frequency are an indicator of summer climate change, with some stations losing over 50 percent of their DP frequency, losing over 40 percent of their TR frequency, and gaining over 30 percent of their MT frequency since 1950.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".