Convergent Migration Renders TRAPPIST-1 Long-lived
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract TRAPPIST-1 is a late M-dwarf orbited by seven Earth-sized planets with orbital period ratios near a chain of mean motion resonances. Due to uncertain system parameters, most orbital configurations drawn from the inferred posterior distribution are unstable on short timescales of ∼0.5 Myr, even when including the eccentricity damping effect of tides. By contrast, we show that most physically plausible resonant configurations generated through disk migration are stable even without tidal dissipation on timescales of at least 50 Myr (10 10 orbits), an increase of at least two orders of magnitude. This result, together with the remarkable chain of period ratios in the system, provide strong evidence for convergent migration naturally emplacing the system near an equilibrium configuration forced by the resonant chain. We provide an openly available database of physically plausible initial conditions for TRAPPIST-1 generated through parameterized planet–disk interactions, as well as bit-by-bit reproducible N -body integrations over 10 9 –10 10 orbits.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it