The “Sudden” Transition to the Free Floating Exchange Rate Regime in Russia in 2014
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The events of the fall of 2014 in the Russian currency market forced Bank of Russia to change the exchange \nrate regime in the national economy. In this study we show that in 2014 the regulator was trying to protect ruble (the Russian national currency) against a massive speculative attack, actively spending its international reserves, but the interventions proved quite ineffective. Moreover, the peculiarity of the structure of these reserves dictated a very limited range of maneuver for the central bank, forcing it to switch to the free floating exchange rate regime in the first half of November, 2014 – an important event, which, actually, could have been predicted by the lay experts on the basis of publically available information and application of simple econometric models. Noteworthy to say that, although not expectedly to the lay population, this switch of the exchange rate regime was done by Bank of Russia quite timely.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it