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Record W2618519612

Estimating Bus Delay at Signalized Intersections from Archived AVL/APC Data

2012· dissertation· en· W2618519612 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Fei Yang

Bibliographic record

VenueUWSpace (University of Waterloo) · 2012
Typedissertation
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicTraffic Prediction and Management Techniques
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsTransport engineeringComputer scienceEngineering
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The travel times of public transit systems that operate on mixed use right-of-ways are often dictated by the delays experienced at signalized intersections. When these delays become large and/or highly variable, transit quality degrades and agency operating costs increase. A number of transit priority measures can be applied, including transit signal priority or queue jump lanes. However, it is necessary that a process of prioritizing intersections for priority treatment be conducted so as to ensure the greatest return on investment is achieved. 
\nThis thesis proposes and demonstrates a methodology to determine the distribution of stopped delays experienced by transit vehicles at signalized intersections using archived AVL (automated vehicle location) and APC (automated passenger counting) data. This methodology is calibrated and validated using queue length and bus unscheduled stopped delay data measured at a field site. Results show the proposed methodology is of sufficient accuracy to be used in practice for prioritizing signalized intersections for priority treatment. On the condition that a sample of the transit vehicle fleet is equipped with an AVL/APC system, the proposed methodology can be automatically implemented using the archived AVL/APC data and therefore avoid the need to conduct dedicated data collection surveys. 
\nThe proposed methodology can provide estimates of (1) the maximum extent of the queue; and (2) measures of the distribution of stopped delays experienced by transit vehicles (e.g. mean, standard deviation, 90th percentile, etc.) caused by the downstream traffic signal. These measures can be produced separately for different analysis periods (e.g. different times of the day; days of the week; and time of the year) and can be compiled separately for different transit routes. These outputs can then be used to identify and prioritize signalized intersections as candidates for transit signal priority measures.
\nThe proposed method is suitable for application to most transit AVL/APC databases and is demonstrated using data from Grand River Transit, the public transit service provider in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario Canada.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.777
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.016
GPT teacher head0.207
Teacher spread0.191 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2012
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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