A NEW HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOR JAPAN? SIMULATING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE PRICE OF SIMEPREVIR
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Japanese authorities have announced a plan to introduce a health technology assessment (HTA) system in 2016. This study assessed the potential impact of such a policy on the price of the antivirologic drug simeprevir. METHODS: Taking the antivirologic drug simeprevir as an example, we compared the current Japanese price with hypothetical prices that might result if a U.K. (cost-utility) or German (efficiency frontier) style HTA assessment was in place. RESULTS: The simeprevir unit price under the current Japanese pricing scheme is 13,122 Japanese yen (equivalent to 109.35 U.S. dollars as of April 2015). Depending on the selection of comparators and the pricing method, and assuming that HTA will be used as a basis for price setting, the estimated prices of simeprevir vary up to four times higher than under the current Japanese pricing scheme. CONCLUSIONS: Although the analysis is based on only one drug, it cannot be taken for granted that a new HTA system would reduce public healthcare expenditure in Japan.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".