The emergence of inter-state party cartelization?: comparative study of foreign policy behavior about the cases of keystone XL pipeline project between Canada and the U.S. and Kürecik radar base between the U.S. and Turkey
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Political parties’ evolutionary trajectory starts from elite party to mass party, to catch-all party, and to cartel party (Katz and Mair, 1995: 18). Cartel party modeling envisions oligopoly of political parties that sustain market-economy oriented policies irrespective of the divisions among the left-right spectrum of the electorate. This thesis investigates presence/absence of inter-state party cartelization in the international relations of countries with cartel party system. The research inquires whether there will be increased cooperation among cartel parties of two states, if the policy question is market-based [and blended with (non-) traditional form of national security]. The analysis focuses on two case studies: Keystone XL pipeline project debate in the U.S. and Canada at the federal government level since 2008 and Turkish-American memorandum of understanding to host “the Army Navy Transportable Radar Surveillance System (AN/TPY-2)” (Kaya, 2011) on Turkey’s Malatya province’s Kürecik district in September 2011. The research integrates James N. Rosenau’s (1966) “pre-theories” framework with electoral and party systems literature from comparative politics and refers to the stream of democratic peace theory studies. This study employs the most different systems design along with chi-square statistics and Pearson’s r. Robert D. Putnam’s (1988) two-level game analysis is utilized as the foreign policy decision-making modeling. In the case of high politics (security issues) [Kürecik radar base], cartel party hypothesis’ projection into foreign policy decision-making process is statistically supported. As for low politics (welfare issues) [Keystone XL pipeline], cartel party hypothesis’ application into foreign policy decision-making process is not statistically validated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".