Inconsistent decadal variations between surface and free tropospheric nitrogen oxides over United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Decreases in surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) in North America have led to substantial improvements in air-quality over the last several decades. Here we show that satellite observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns over the contiguous United States (US) do not decrease after about 2009, while surface NO2 concentrations continue to decline through to the present. This divergence, if it continues, could have a substantial impact on surface air quality due to mixing of free-tropospheric air into the boundary layer. Our results show only limited contributions from local effects such as fossil fuel emissions, lightning, or instrument artifacts, but we do find a possible relationship of NO2 changes to decadal climate variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the intensity of transpacific transport is stronger in El Niño years and weaker in La Niña years, and consequently, that decadal-scale climate variability impacts the contribution of Asian emissions on North American atmospheric composition. Because of the short lifetime, it is usually believed that the direct contribution of long-range transport to tropospheric NOx distribution is limited. If our hypothesis about transported Asian emissions is correct, then this observed divergence between satellite and surface NOx could indicate mechanisms that allow for either NOx or its reservoir species to have a larger than expected effect on North American tropospheric composition. These results therefore suggest more aircraft and satellite studies to determine the possible missing processes in our understanding of the long-range transport of tropospheric NOx.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".