Sand or grease? Corruption-institutional trust nexus in post-Soviet countries
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper empirically tests several hypotheses about the nexus of corruption-institutional trust in Post-Soviet transitional countries of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. We use two different indices of institutional trust to check the robustness of our analysis and estimate OLS and instrumental variable models with and without interaction terms. All things considered, our findings reject “greases the wheels” and “trust begets an honest political system” hypotheses. Instead, our findings support the “sand the wheels” hypothesis. Furthermore, a multiplicative interaction model suggests that the negative marginal effects of experienced corruption are higher in the environments where satisfaction with services is low. In addition, we found that increases in corruption erode trust at all levels of the societal institutions including political parties, government and financial institutions, international investors, non-profit organizations, and trade unions. This finding is important since it highlights the negative consequences of corruption on the development of broader level economic institutions and on civil society.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it