Baseline Synthesis and Microsimulation of Life-stage Transitions within an Agent-based Integrated Urban Model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents baseline synthesis and microsimulation of life-stage transitions within an agent-based integrated Transport Land Use and Energy (iTLE) modeling system. The baseline synthesis involves generation of synthetic population and vehicle ownership level synthesis. Synthetic population in generated in two stages: (1) generation of synthetic population at the dissemination area (DA) level, controlling for household- and individual-level attributes; and (2) allocation of the synthetic population at the micro-spatial unit of parcel using a logit-link model. Vehicle ownership synthesis involves a multinomial logit model to determine the vehicle ownership level for the base year. The life-stages of the synthetic population are simulated longitudinally at a yearly simulation time-step within the iTLE framework. The simulated life-stages include: aging, birth, death, in-migration, out-migration, and household formation. The iTLE is coded in the C# DotNET programming platform. A 100% synthetic population is generated for Halifax, Canada. The baseline synthesis and life-stage simulation results are satisfactory. For instance, population synthesis results suggest that around 62.81% of the DAs show an error percentage range of -5% to +5%.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it