A multicentury dendrochronological reconstruction of western spruce budworm outbreaks in the Okanogan Highlands, northeastern Washington
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis occidentalis Freeman) is recognized as the most ecologically and economically damaging defoliator in western North America. Synchronous western spruce budworm outbreaks can occur over much of a host species’ range, causing widespread limb and tree mortality, regeneration delays, and reduction in tree growth rates. Observational outbreak records in northern Washington State extend back only to the mid-20th century, limiting our understanding of this species’ long-term population dynamics. In this study, we used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct multicentury outbreak records at four sites in the Okanogan Highlands of northeastern Washington State. We assessed long-term changes in outbreak patterns and tested moisture availability as a potential driving factor of western spruce budworm population dynamics. Outbreak synchrony was found to increase after the late 19th century, especially for high-intensity outbreaks, possibly due to anthropogenic factors. Moisture availability records show that outbreaks tend to occur at the end of droughts. As the variability of climate conditions is projected to increase, trending towards warm and dry summer conditions, the intensity and frequency of high-intensity western spruce budworm outbreaks may increase as well.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".