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Scoring First and Home Advantage in the NHL

2009· article· en· W2637219041 on OpenAlex
Beatrix Jones

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport · 2009
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicSports Analytics and Performance
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsQuarter (Canadian coin)Momentum (technical analysis)PsychologyCompetitive advantageOperations managementMarketingEconomicsBusinessFinanceHistory

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Home advantage in the NBA has recently been reported to be “frontloaded,” that is, it is largest in the 1st quarter, smallest in the 4th quarter, and in-between in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Home advantage in the 1st quarter was 60% of home advantage at the end of the game. The present study was intended to determine if NHL hockey, a very different sport, is also frontloaded. The results were that home advantage in the first goal was 53.01% (home wins) and 52.37% in goals scored after the first. Home advantage in complete games was 56.05%. Hence, the advantage accumulated in the 1st quarter equaled 49.75% of the advantage in complete games. Theories of “psychological momentum” have been advanced according to which scoring first gives a team an advantage in subsequent play. In the NHL, however, no such advantage obtains. In fact, the team scored against does slightly better in goals scored after the first than the team which scores first. Momentum theory also claims that scoring first markedly increases the likelihood of winning. It does, but the effect is due mainly to the fact that the first goal is included in the final score.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.013
Threshold uncertainty score0.331

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.014
GPT teacher head0.242
Teacher spread0.228 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it