Lepidoptera wing scales: a new paleoecological indicator for reconstructing spruce budworm abundance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Natural disturbances have a major impact on boreal forest landscape dynamics, and although fire history is well documented at the Holocene scale, spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) (SBW) dynamics have only been known for the last three centuries. This is likely due to the difficulty in using and interpreting existing indicators (cephalic head capsules and feces). In this methodological study, we present an original approach using lepidopteran wing scales to reconstruct insect abundance. We analyzed two sediment cores from the boreal forest in central Quebec and extracted wing scales at every stratigraphic level. The required quantity of sediment for paleoecological analysis is relatively small given the large quantity of wing scales produced by Lepidoptera and their small size. Scales are well preserved due to their chitinous structure and their great variety of shapes offer a high potential for taxonomic identification. A statistical model based on the shape of scales of the three major epidemic lepidopterans in Quebec discriminated 68% of SBW scales. This indicator allows a more efficient and more precise reconstruction of SBW history with respect to the use of cephalic head capsules or feces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".