Potential for immune-driven viral polymorphisms to compromise antiretroviral-based preexposure prophylaxis for prevention of HIV-1 infection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Long-acting rilpivirine is a candidate for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for prevention of HIV-1 infection. However, rilpivirine resistance mutations at reverse transcriptase codon 138 (E138X) occur naturally in a minority of HIV-1-infected persons; in particular those expressing human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B18 where reverse transcriptase-E138X arises as an immune escape mutation. We investigate the global prevalence, B18-linkage and replicative cost of reverse transcriptase-E138X and its regional implications for rilpivirine PrEP. METHODS: We analyzed linked reverse transcriptase-E138X/HLA data from 7772 antiretroviral-naive patients from 16 cohorts spanning five continents and five HIV-1 subtypes, alongside unlinked global reverse transcriptase-E138X and HLA frequencies from public databases. E138X-containing HIV-1 variants were assessed for in-vitro replication as a surrogate of mutation stability following transmission. RESULTS: Reverse transcriptase-E138X variants, where the most common were rilpivirine resistance-associated mutations E138A/G/K, were significantly enriched in HLA-B18-positive individuals globally (P = 3.5 × 10) and in all HIV-1 subtypes except A. Reverse transcriptase-E138X and B18 frequencies correlated positively in 16 cohorts with linked HIV/HLA genotypes (Spearman's R = 0.75; P = 7.6 × 10) and in unlinked HIV/HLA data from 43 countries (Spearman's R = 0.34, P = 0.02). Notably, reverse transcriptase-E138X frequencies approached (or exceeded) 10% in key epidemic regions (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, Southeastern Europe) where B18 is more common. This, along with the observation that reverse transcriptase-E138X variants do not confer in-vitro replicative costs, supports their persistence, and ongoing accumulation in circulation over time. CONCLUSIONS: Results illustrate the potential for a natural immune-driven HIV-1 polymorphism to compromise antiretroviral-based prevention, particularly in key epidemic regions. Regional reverse transcriptase-E138X surveillance should be undertaken before use of rilpivirine PrEP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".