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Record W265954421

The U.S. Economy. A Glimmer of Hope

2013· article· en· W265954421 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Jack Malehorn

Bibliographic record

Venue˜The œjournal of business forecasting · 2013
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFiscal Policies and Political Economy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAtlantaWarrantEconomicsEconomyEconomic historyFinanceHistory
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them.PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank & Nuveen Capital Asset Management, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.The Consensus Outlook is cautiously optimistic; it appears that there are some positive developments on the horizon. This premise is supported by those who are always so kind in sharing their insightful analysis. Dr. Ray Perryman believes that the economy is growing steadily but unspectacularly. He further adds that consumer confidence is rising and investors are buoyed by the continuing wave in monetary policy. But sufficient uncertainty remains to prevent substantial momentum; however, recent fears about a double dip,'which were never justified, have receded. John Silvia, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo, directs attention to the positive developments in housing markets nationwide and that inflationary pressures seem subdued. Despite some slowing in the nearest time frame and cognizant of below long-term trend growth, Mr. Silvia stands firm with his positive outlook. In his recent analysis, he notes strength in auto and retail sales. His team believes that residential construction will be a bright spot over time. Finally, he states that there exists no evidence to believe that derailment is likely from the current growth trend. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center, J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University, offers an intellectually stimulating analysis of the economy based on what he calls the present 'Disconnect' highlighting positive market results, e.g., progress in the Dow despite strong fundamentals in place. Undoubtedly, the downside risks to the outlook are great, nonetheless there seems to exist the slightest hint of optimism. …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.486
Threshold uncertainty score0.335

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.035
GPT teacher head0.201
Teacher spread0.165 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2013
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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