Generalized Entropy Theory of Information and Market Patterns
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We develop an economic theory of information generalized from the entropy theory of information and show that it provides the foundation to understand market behavior. One fundamental result from this information theory is that information with higher value is in general more costly. Another fundamental result from this information theory is that the amount of information one can receive is the amount of information generated minus equivocation. The level of equivocation, which is the measure of information asymmetry, is determined by the correlation between the source of information and the receiver of information. How much information one can receive depends on the background knowledge of the receiver. In general, industry insiders understand information earlier than other investors; large investors, who are willing to spend more to collect and analyze information, generally utilize different kinds of information from small investors. This heterogeneity in information processing by the investment public offers a simple understanding of the price and volume patterns uncovered in the empirical studies, which have been unable to be explained by the existing theories in behavioral finance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it