Dynamic Interactions between the Markets of Crude Oil and Fine Wine in Light of the Global Economic Growth
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic interactions of return and volatility transmission between crude oil and fine wine prices accounting for the global economic activity. Within a multivariate framework and using monthly data over the period 1988-2012, we addressed the co-movement between crude oil and fine wine markets by means of time-varying conditional variance and correlation. Empirical results indicate that the crude oil mean return dominates that of the wine market. The effects of negative shocks are asymmetric between the two markets. Besides high levels of volatility persistence, innovations in each market can help investors and risk managers in predicting the volatility in other markets. Finally, we found evidence that the linkages between the two markets are affected by the global industrial production levels.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it