Estimación de algunos de los posibles impactos de la estrategia Trump sobre los tratados de libre comercio de Estados Unidos con México y Canadá desde 1999 y con Colombia desde 2012
Bibliographic record
Abstract
La inestabilidad es propia de la dinamica economica y, por lo tanto, del comercio internacional. Como lo prueba la mecanica cuantica, ninguna variable de la naturaleza ni, por tanto, alguna de las macroeconomicas opera en equilibrio, razones por las que su analisis exige enfoques propios del pensamiento complejo. El articulo se propone mostrar los posibles impactos directos e indirectos de la que denomina estrategia Trump sobre el comercio internacional de Estados Unidos, intentando probar que, en el corto, mediano y largo plazo, dicha estrategia podria terminar perjudicando a los mismos Estados Unidos y, al tiempo, dinamizando a sus competidores globales. Inicialmente, enfoca un diagnostico de las relaciones comerciales de Estados Unidos con Mexico y Canada (TLCAN) y con Colombia (TLC). Analiza macro economicamente estos impactos, pondera luego los argumentos que sobre este tema ha expuesto recientemente la revista The Economist (2016) y, al final, presenta las conclusiones pertinentes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".