Bibliographic record
Abstract
Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of Russia's post‐Soviet experience. This article examines three episodes of sudden and sharp ruble depreciation in 1998, 2008, and 2014–16. We examine these crises and their political consequences as iterative episodes in the Russian government's ongoing efforts to deal with its structural dependence on energy revenues and international capital flows. We argue that the 1998 crisis and the Russian government's response to it proved effective in transforming policies and institutions that had contributed to the ruble's collapse, but also paradoxically reinforced the central role of resource revenues and international capital flows in Russia's political economy. Policy decisions after 2008 then represented variations on a theme, leaving the Russian government better able to manage future currency crises while simultaneously maintaining and deepening the state's underlying structural vulnerabilities as well as its patronage‐based political‐economic system. The crisis of 2014–16 may, however, ultimately bring greater shifts in policy as Russia adapts to fundamentally changed international circumstances.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".