Spring frost controls spring tree phenology along elevational gradients on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Temperature is considered to be a main driver of spring phenology, whereas the role of climate extremes (such as spring frosts) has long been neglected. A large elevational gradient of mature forests on the Tibetan Plateau provides a powerful space-for-time ‘natural experiment’ to explore driving forces of spring phenology. Combining 5-yr of in situ phenological observations of Smith fir ( Abies georgei var. smithii ) with concurrent air temperature data along two altitudinal gradients on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, we tested the hypothesis that spring frost was a major factor regulating the timing of spring phenology. Onset of bud swelling and leaf unfolding in the study years occurred ≈ 18 or 17 days earlier, respectively, at the lowest (3800 m a.s.l.) elevation relative to upper treelines (4360 or 4380 m a.s.l.). The frequency of freezing events and last freezing date were critical factors in determining the timing of bud swelling along two altitudinal gradients, whereas onset of leaf unfolding was primarily controlled by the onset of bud swelling. This finding provides evidence for detrimental impacts of spring frost on spring phenology, which have been underappreciated in research on phenological sensitivity to climate but should be included in phenology models. It contributes to explain the declining global warming effects on spring phenophases, because climatic extreme events (e.g. spring frosts) tend to increase with warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".