Tropical Moisture Exports, Extreme Precipitation and Floods in Northeastern US
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A statistically and physically based framework is put forward to investigate the relationship between Tropical Moisture Exports (TMEs), extreme precipitation and floods in the Northeastern United States (NE-US). We found that the NE-US floods in the four seasons are closely related to TMEs and four major moisture sources of TMEs in the tropics account for approximately 85% of all the TMEs that enter the NE-US. The seasonality and interannual variation of the birth processes in the four source regions determine their contribution to the NE-US. Moisture born in Gulf of Mexico (GP) and Gulf stream (GS) are the year-around sources, with some winter contribution from Pineapple Express (PE) region, and West Pacific (WP) region contributes the least. The overall order of their contribution to NE-US is GP>GS>PE>WP. Seasonal association between TMEs birth and ENSO are also found. The seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric circulation patterns also play an important role in determining the TMEs’ entrance to NE-US. Strong influence of active TMEs periods on the occurrence of extreme rainfall is also identified. We show that the extreme daily precipitation events are dominated by extreme TMEs’ entering the NE-US in every season.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it