Copula-based parameter estimation for Markov-modulated Poisson Process
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Markov-modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) has been extensively studied in random process theory and widely used as a network traffic model. Most methods for estimating MMPP parameters are based on the exact arrival times. Nevertheless, in many applications it is costly to record the exact time of each arrival. Instead, we only record the number of arrivals in fixed-length time slots, which is called arrival count. Since arrival count data does not maintain detailed arrival times, it is non trivial to develop effective methods for MMPP parameter estimation with arrival counts only. Very few existing works deal with this challenge. This paper tackles the above challenge with copula analysis. The theoretical marginal distribution and copula of arrival counts in MMPP are applied to develop a new estimation method, MarCpa, which is a two-step estimation method involving marginal matching followed by copula matching. Our evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed method is fast and accurate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".