Rainfall in Oman and the United Arab Emirates: Cyclicity, Influence of the Southern Oscillation, and What the Future May Hold
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Maximum entropy spectrum analysis (MESA) of precipitation at Sharjah (1935-94) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and at Muscat (1895-1995), Masirah (1944-93), and Salalah (1943-93) in Oman reveal clear and statistically significant cycles in water-year (October to September) rainfall over the periods of record (50-101 years). All four stations have 17-20 year and 6.3-7.4-year cycles that explain 3.6%-12.2% and 6.7%-12.9% of the variance in the original data, respectively. Two stations (Sharjah and Muscat) have an approximately 10-year cycle that explains 3.1%-10.3% of the variance in the data, while Muscat and Masirah have approximately 5-year cycles that explain 15.6%-22.0% of the variance. MESA of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for the 98-year period 1897-1994 reveals water-year cycles at about 18, 10, and 6-7 years. The 18-year cycle correlates positively with the 17.7-year and 19.7-year rainfall cycles at Muscat and Sharjah and negatively with the 17.7-year cycle at Salalah. It appears that higher rain...
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".