The causal relationship in North American energy production
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Crude oil and natural gas production is examined to investigate the cross‐country causal relationship and interconnectedness of these markets, within the North American context. A vast infrastructure network, consisting of pipelines and railroads that connect the US and Canadian markets, with virtually all of Canada's crude oil and natural gas exports flowing south. The study is undertaken within the context of the recent US shale energy revolution based on technological advancements in drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Unique to this study is the use of production data, rather than the archetypal energy prices, to investigate the presence of bilateral relationships. Monthly, country level data on crude oil and natural gas production, over the period 2002 through 2015, is utilised. The results of standard unit root tests indicate that the production series are non‐stationary in levels, while cointegration test indicate that the markets are integrated. A bidirectional relationship is found for the crude oil market. In contrast, a unidirectional relationship is observed in the gas market – US natural gas production causes Canadian natural gas production.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".