Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the substantial body of literature that has been written about the Panic of 1837, two schools of thought have become dominant. One focuses on domestic factors such as Andrew Jackson’s Specie Circular and legislation to distribute the federal surplus, while the other focuses on an international shock stemming from changes in the Bank of England’s lending policies. Although there is compelling evidence supporting each of the theories, the Panic remains imperfectly understood. This paper uses new bank-level data to econometrically test each of the existing theories and to explore an additional trigger. I find that the effects of the distribution to be overemphasized and that while some evidence supports the theory focused on international factors, the data strongly suggests that the Panic was in fact due to the collapse of confidence in Andrew Jackson’s pet banking system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".