Adaptive Prediction Emerges Over Short Evolutionary Time Scales
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Adaptive prediction is a capability of diverse organisms, including microbes, to sense a cue and prepare in advance to deal with a future environmental challenge. Here, we investigated the timeframe over which adaptive prediction emerges when an organism encounters an environment with novel structure. We subjected yeast to laboratory evolution in a novel environment with repetitive, coupled exposures to a neutral chemical cue (caffeine), followed by a sublethal dose of a toxin (5-FOA), with an interspersed requirement for uracil prototrophy to counter-select mutants that gained constitutive 5-FOA resistance. We demonstrate the remarkable ability of yeast to internalize a novel environmental pattern within 50-150 generations by adaptively predicting 5-FOA stress upon sensing caffeine. We also demonstrate how novel environmental structure can be internalized by coupling two unrelated response networks, such as the response to caffeine and signaling-mediated conditional peroxisomal localization of proteins.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".