The evolutionary history of 2,658 cancers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Cancer develops through a process of somatic evolution. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing of 2,778 tumour samples from 2,658 donors to reconstruct the life history, evolution of mutational processes, and driver mutation sequences of 39 cancer types. The early phases of oncogenesis are driven by point mutations in a small set of driver genes, often including biallelic inactivation of tumour suppressors. Early oncogenesis is also characterised by specific copy number gains, such as trisomy 7 in glioblastoma or isochromosome 17q in medulloblastoma. By contrast, increased genomic instability, a nearly four-fold diversification of driver genes, and an acceleration of point mutation processes are features of later stages. Copy-number alterations often occur in mitotic crises leading to simultaneous gains of multiple chromosomal segments. Timing analysis suggests that driver mutations often precede diagnosis by many years, and in some cases decades, providing a window of opportunity for early cancer detection.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".