Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm Optimization of a Neural Network for Estimating Wind Speed Prediction Intervals
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this work, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) is applied to determine the weights of a neural network trained for short-term forecasting of wind speed. More precisely, the neural network is trained to produce the lower and upper bounds of the prediction intervals of wind speed. The objectives driving the search for the optimal values of the neural network weights are the coverage of the prediction intervals (to be maximized) and the width (to be minimized). A real application is shown with reference to hourly wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and pressure data in the region of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. Correlation analysis shows that the wind speed has weak dependence on the above mentioned meteorological parameters; hence, only hourly historical wind speed is used as input to a neural network model trained to provide in output the one-hour-ahead prediction of wind speed. The originality of the work lies in proposing a multi-objective framework for estimating wind speed prediction intervals (PIs), optimal both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and efficacy (width). In the case study analyzed, a comparison with two single-objective methods has been done and the results show that the PIs produced by NSGA-II compare well with those and are satisfactory in both objectives of high coverage and small width.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".