Changes in the Nature and Severity of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Children Before and After the Seven-valent and Thirteen-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Programs in Calgary, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Since the introduction of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence has decreased in children and the predominant serotypes causing disease have changed. This study describes changes in the clinical features of IPD in children (<18 years) before and after the conjugate vaccine introduction. METHODS: The Calgary Area Streptococcus pneumoniae Epidemiology Research study collects information on all IPD cases in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Descriptive and regression analyses were used to compare IPD in the pre-vaccine (January 2000 to August 2002), post-7-valent protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (September 2002 to June 2010) and post-13-valent protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (PCV13) (July 2010 to December 2015) periods; intensive care unit and inpatient admissions were outcome measures. RESULTS: The incidence of IPD in children (<18 years) decreased from an average of 17 cases/100,000/yr in 2000-2001 to 4 cases/100,000/yr in 2015. The median age of children presenting with IPD shifted from 2.0 years (interquartile range: 2.5) in the pre-vaccine period to 3.9 years (interquartile range: 6.2) in the post-PCV13 period. The proportion of children with a comorbidity that is an indication for pneumococcal vaccination did not change. Invasive disease with focus (meningitis, pneumonia, empyema, peritonitis) compared with invasive disease with bacteremia only increased from 44.6% in pre-vaccine to 64.0% and 61.4% in the post-7-valent protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and post-PCV13 periods, respectively (P = 0.017). Having IPD in the post-PCV13 period compared with the pre-vaccine period was associated with an increased odds of hospitalization [Odds ratio (OR): 2.9; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-6.2]. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical features of IPD have changed since pneumococcal conjugate vaccines were introduced, with a shift toward more focal infections requiring hospitalization. Although overall IPD cases have declined, disease that does occur appears to be more severe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".